The important thing about looking ahead is to prepare so that we aren’t caught unaware.
With that in mind, here are my comments on the predictions for the New Year.
Forecast: Interest rates will go up.
Comment: For the past five years, economists predicted rates to rise. Only in 2018 were they right. The year ended with rates about .5% higher than 12/2017. My opinion is that rates will increase moderately in the first quarter and then go flat.
Forecast: House sales will increase but at a slower pace than the past two years.
Comment: I don’t see how that could be wrong. Young people are coming into home buying age faster than old people are going into assisted living. Immigrants also need housing. The frantic, insane bidding wars are over — and that’s good.
Forecast: About three quarters of economists believe a recession is coming somewhere between late 2019…
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