U.S. Housing Market

Mortgage Applications in U.S. Increase From 12-Month Low on Refinancing, by Bob Willis, Bloomberg.com

Posted by

0

Mortgage applications in the U.S. rose last week from a 12-month low as refinancing increased for the first time since early November.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of loan applications increased 2.3 percent after dropping 3.9 percent in the prior week to the lowest level since December 2009. The group’s refinancing gauge rose from the lowest level since Jan. 1, while the purchase index declined.

Home-purchase applications fell 31 percent at the end of the year from a 2010 high in April, while an increase in mortgage rates hampers refinancing. Declining home prices, mounting foreclosures and unemployment hovering near 10 percent mean any recovery in housing, the industry that triggered the recession, will probably take years.

“It doesn’t look good,” Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “With rates moving up, it’s going to be a tough hurdle.” On purchases, “we’re still in this sideways, choppy situation.”

The group’s refinancing gauge rose 3.9 percent after dropping 7.2 percent. The purchase index fell 0.8 percent last week after rising 3.1 percent.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan dropped to 4.82 percent last week from 4.93 percent the prior week, which was the highest since May, the group said. The rate reached 4.21 percent in October, the lowest since the group’s records began in 1990.

Borrowing Costs

At the current 30-year rate, monthly borrowing costs for each $100,000 of a loan would be $525.87, or about $22 less than the same week the prior year.

The share of applicants seeking to refinance a loan rose to 71 percent last week from 70.3 percent the prior week.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the largest homebuilder in New Jersey, on Dec. 22 reported a fourth-quarter loss bigger than analysts expected as revenue fell 19 percent.

“The year can generally be described as one where we and the industry were bouncing along the bottom,” Chief Executive Officer Ara Hovnanian said on a conference call.

The Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association’s loan survey, compiled every week, covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

Related Articles

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rose 3.5% in November, by Bob Willis, Bloomberg.com

Posted by

0

The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in November, a sign sales are recovering following a post-tax credit plunge.

The index of pending resales increased 3.5 percent after jumping a record 10 percent in October, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 0.8 percent rise in November, and the gain was the fourth in five months. The group’s data go back to 2001.

Home demand is stabilizing after sales collapsed to a record low in July, as the effects of a tax incentive worth as much as $8,000 waned. A jobless rate hovering near 10 percent means foreclosures will remain elevated and any recovery in housing, the industry that precipitated the worst recession since the 1930s, will take time to develop.

The figures are “in line with an ongoing gradual pickup in existing-home sales in December,” Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York, said in an e-mail to clients. “Housing demand should continue its uneven recovery entering 2011 as housing oversupply should keep pushing housing prices down.”

A report today from the Labor Department showed claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level since July 2008, showing the labor market is improving heading into 2011. Filings decreased by 34,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Dec. 25, fewer than the lowest estimate of economists surveyed.

Business Barometer

Other figures showed the economy accelerated at the end of the year. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’sbusiness barometer jumped to 68.6 in December from 62.5 in the prior month. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion and the level was the highest since July 1988.

Stocks fluctuated between gains and losses after the reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexfell 0.1 percent to 1,258.23 at 11:17 a.m. in New York. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note declined, pushing up the yield to 3.39 percent from 3.35 percent late yesterday.

The projected increase in pending home sales was based on the median of 24 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 5 percent to a gain of 5 percent.

Two of four regions saw an increase, today’s report showed, led by an 18 percent jump in the West. Pending sales rose 1.8 percent in the Northeast. They fell 4.2 percent in the Midwest and 1.8 percent in the South.

November 2009

Compared with November 2009, pending sales in the U.S. were down 2.4 percent.

Even as the labor market is improving and manufacturing is growing, housing remains a weak link. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun last week estimated there were about 4.5 million distressed properties that could potentially reach the market in coming months.

Average home prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes have begun dropping again after rising when the tax incentive was in effect. The group’s 20-city index fell 0.8 percent in October from a year earlier, the biggest year-on-year decline since December. It fell 1 percent from the prior month, and is down 30 percent from its July 2006 peak.

Reports earlier this month showed the housing market is stuck near recession levels. Housing permits fell in November to the third-lowest level on record, while starts rose for the first time in three months, the Commerce Department reported Dec. 16.

Home Sales

Sales of new and existing homes last month rose less than projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, reports from the Commerce Department and the National Association of Realtors showed last week. Existing home sales represent closings on the contracts captured by the pending sales gauge.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the largest homebuilder in New Jersey, on Dec. 22 reported a fourth-quarter loss bigger than analysts expected as revenue fell 19 percent.

“The year can generally be described as one where we and the industry were bouncing along the bottom,” Chief Executive Officer Ara Hovnanian said on a conference call.

Even so, economists in the past two weeks have boosted projections for fourth-quarter growth, reflecting a pickup in consumer spending and passage of an $858 billion bill extending all Bush-era tax cuts for two years.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

    Related Articles

    Inside Lending Newsletter From Geoffrey Boyd, Prime Lending

    Posted by

    0

    Ben Bernanke (lower-right), Chairman of the Fe...

    Image via Wikipedia

    INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  Last week’s housing market data centered on Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. This showed home prices UP in July for the fourth month in a row, but the pace of their gain had slowed from prior months. With the expiration of the government’s home buyer tax incentives, some observers wonder if the S&P/Case-Shiller will keep moving up. The composite 20-city index, a broad measure of U.S. home prices, showed a 3.2% increase year over year, the sixth month in a row it posted an annual gain.

    Nonetheless, home price gains did slow in the waning days of the tax credits. In July, only 12 of the 20 cities surveyed showed price gains, compared to 17 cities reporting rising prices in June. Analysts pointed out that these results underscore the fact that the spring/early summer months are the best for home sales. Most experts feel the next few months should give us a better idea of the true strength of the housing market.

    >> Review of Last Week

    A BIT OF A BREATHER… Investors on Wall Street took a rest last week from bidding stock prices up the way they had earlier in the month. Performance of the major market indexes was uninspiring, though slippages were all less than a half a percent. But performance for the month was impressive. The broad-based S&P 500 index, favored by professional investors, shot up 8.8% for September, its best monthly gain since April 2009 and its best September reading in over 70 years.

    Perhaps investors took the week off because they remain cautious about the near-term economic recovery. Consumers seem to agree, as the week began with a surprise drop in September’s Consumer Confidence Index, which hit a seven-month low, falling far short of consensus expectations. The ISM Manufacturing Index also slid a bit from August to September, missing estimates, but remaining in expansion territory.

    Upside economic data included better than forecast weekly initial jobless claims, although 453,000 is still not a good number. Continuing claims dropped by 83,000 for the week, but that number remains well above 4 million. Personal income and spending (PCE) for August were up better than expected and Core PCE was up just 0.1%, so inflation is still in check.

    For the week, the Dow ended down 0.3%, to 10829.68; the S&P 500 was down 0.2%, to 1146.24; and the Nasdaq was off 0.4%, to 2370.75.

    The bond market ended the week with investor interest helping prices in some areas. One was the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch, which ended UP 10 basis points for the week, closing at $102.27. According to Freddie Mac‘s weekly survey, national average mortgage rates for fixed-rate mortgages dropped a tad, remaining at historically low levels.

    >> This Week’s Forecast

    WHERE WE’RE GOING WITH HOMES AND JOBS… The week begins with August Pending Home Sales, which count signed contracts and therefore tell us what will be happening with closings a few months out. Unfortunately, the consensus expects the August reading to be down a bit from July. But September ISM Services is expected to show the non-manufacturing sector still indicating expansion, with a reading just over 50.

    The week ends with the September Employment Report and the forecast is for no increase in payrolls overall, although 70,000 jobs are expected to be added to the private sector. However, population growth outpaces this rate of job creation, so unemployment is predicted to tick up to 9.7%.

    >> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

    Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

    Economic Calendar for the Week of October 4 – October 8

    Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
    M
    Oct 4    		 10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug 1.0% 5.2% Moderate
    Tu
    Oct 5    		 10:00 ISM Services Sep 51.8 51.5 Moderate
    W
    Oct 6    		 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/2 NA –0.475M Moderate
    Th
    Oct 7    		 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 10/2 455K 453K Moderate
    Th
    Oct 7    		 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 9/25 4.450M 4.457M Moderate
    F
    Oct 8    		 08:30 Average Workweek Sep 34.2 34.2 HIGH
    F
    Oct 8    		 08:30 Hourly Earnings Sep 0.1% 0.3% HIGH
    F
    Oct 8    		 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 0K –54K HIGH
    F
    Oct 8    		 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Sep 70K 67K HIGH
    F
    Oct 8    		 08:30 Unemployment Rate Sep 9.7% 9.6% HIGH

    >> Federal Reserve Watch

    Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  There’s been a lot of talk about the Fed’s readiness to provide a second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) if needed. This has led economists to believe that the Fed Funds Rate will remain at its rock bottom levels for quite some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

    Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

    After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
    Nov 3 0%–0.25%
    Dec 14 0%–0.25%
    Jan 26 0%–0.25%

    Probability of change from current policy:

    After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
    Nov 3 <1%
    Dec 14 <1%
    Jan 26 <1%
    Geoffrey Boyd
    Area Manager/Mortgage Consultant
    10135 SE Sunnyside Road, Suite 120
    Clackamas, OR 97015
    Phone: 503.462.0413
    Fax: 877.874.4649
    Mobile: 503.819.2462
    Main: 503.786.7092
    Related Articles